Can Chennai Super Kings make it to the semi-finals of IPL 2009? The recent loss of Chennai Super Kings to Kolkata Knight Riders has prevented them to make it comfortably. But, in all likelihood, they should qualify. For them not to qualify from here, it needs almost everything go against them.
Current Standing:
Delhi Daredevils - 18 pts (Qualified for semi-finals)
Chennai Super Kings - 15 pts
Deccan Chargers - 14 pts
Royal Challengers Bangalore - 14 pts
Kings XI Punjab - 14 pts
Rajasthan Royals - 13 pts
Mumbai Indians - 11 pts (Out of contention for semi-finals)
Kolkata Knight Riders - 5 pts (Out of contention for semi-finals)
Five teams are competing for three available semi-final berths. All of them have a game each in hand.
Remaining Matches:
1. Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan Royals
2. Chennai Super Kings vs Kings XI Punjab
3. Delhi Daredevils vs Mumbai Indians (Only match in IPL that is to be played without any interest, as Delhi has already made it to the semis and Mumbai is already out of contention)
4. Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Deccan Chargers (Effectively, a quarter-final match. The winner is assured of a place in semi-finals)
So, that makes it three important matches in two days that will decide the remaining three semi-finalists.
How Chennai Super Kings can Qualify for semi-finals?
Theoretically, Chennai is yet to qualify. But, I believe that they made it. The best way to qualify is to beat Kings XI Punjab today and retain the second spot with 17 points. Let us look at the worst scenario for Chennai.
Match #1: Rajasthan wins
Match #2: Chennai loses
Match #3: Result Irrelevant
Match #4: Either Deccan wins or Bangalore wins
With this scenario, Kings XI Punjab will go through along with the winner of match #4, both teams on 16 points. Rajasthan and Chennai will be tied on 15 points and net run rate will decide. Currently, Chennai has a net run rate of +0.932 compared to Rajasthan Royals' -0.360. So, it needs a huge win by Rajasthan combined with huge loss by Chennai for Rajasthan to go up in terms of net run rate. Let me explain how big the win/ loss should be:
Let us say, Rajasthan bats first, scores 240 runs and restricts Kolkata to just 100 runs. Rajasthan wins by a margin of 140 runs. For discussion sake, let us say the reverse happens to Chennai. That means, Kings XI Punjab beats Chennai by a margin of 140 runs. With such huge margin in two games, Chennai will have a NRR of +0.317 and Rajasthan will still be behind with +0.216.
Chennai, in my opinion, should qualify without much fuss.
Current Standing:
Delhi Daredevils - 18 pts (Qualified for semi-finals)
Chennai Super Kings - 15 pts
Deccan Chargers - 14 pts
Royal Challengers Bangalore - 14 pts
Kings XI Punjab - 14 pts
Rajasthan Royals - 13 pts
Mumbai Indians - 11 pts (Out of contention for semi-finals)
Kolkata Knight Riders - 5 pts (Out of contention for semi-finals)
Five teams are competing for three available semi-final berths. All of them have a game each in hand.
Remaining Matches:
1. Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan Royals
2. Chennai Super Kings vs Kings XI Punjab
3. Delhi Daredevils vs Mumbai Indians (Only match in IPL that is to be played without any interest, as Delhi has already made it to the semis and Mumbai is already out of contention)
4. Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Deccan Chargers (Effectively, a quarter-final match. The winner is assured of a place in semi-finals)
So, that makes it three important matches in two days that will decide the remaining three semi-finalists.
How Chennai Super Kings can Qualify for semi-finals?
Theoretically, Chennai is yet to qualify. But, I believe that they made it. The best way to qualify is to beat Kings XI Punjab today and retain the second spot with 17 points. Let us look at the worst scenario for Chennai.
Match #1: Rajasthan wins
Match #2: Chennai loses
Match #3: Result Irrelevant
Match #4: Either Deccan wins or Bangalore wins
With this scenario, Kings XI Punjab will go through along with the winner of match #4, both teams on 16 points. Rajasthan and Chennai will be tied on 15 points and net run rate will decide. Currently, Chennai has a net run rate of +0.932 compared to Rajasthan Royals' -0.360. So, it needs a huge win by Rajasthan combined with huge loss by Chennai for Rajasthan to go up in terms of net run rate. Let me explain how big the win/ loss should be:
Let us say, Rajasthan bats first, scores 240 runs and restricts Kolkata to just 100 runs. Rajasthan wins by a margin of 140 runs. For discussion sake, let us say the reverse happens to Chennai. That means, Kings XI Punjab beats Chennai by a margin of 140 runs. With such huge margin in two games, Chennai will have a NRR of +0.317 and Rajasthan will still be behind with +0.216.
Chennai, in my opinion, should qualify without much fuss.
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